The Bradley Effect vs. The Boyarsky Effect

The Bradley effect is a theory designed to explain observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes where a minority candidate loses the election despite projections asserting he or she will beat a white opponent. Revolving around a social desirability bias where white voters are believed to support minority candidates for fear of being criticized for having racist motivations, fears have escalated in the past few weeks that the Bradley effect will push the Presidential election in Senator McCain's favor despite opinion polls suggesting otherwise.


With the media discussing the Bradley effect and our population's inherent tendencies concerning race, I would like to slightly veer off-course and introduce the Boyarsky effect. Rather than work against Senator Obama like the Bradley effect, however, the Boyarsky effect will ultimately hand Senator Obama 2008 election. While exact measurements still need to be determined, it would appear that Senator Obama would gain voters simply through the media's depiction of his large lead in the polls. It appears that the principle of social proof can come into play here since many registered voters can be swayed to vote for Obama simply because 1) it appears that a slight majority of Americans already support him and 2) that he will be the winner.

When an election of such monumental importance is so close on the horizon, media's overuse of opinion polls that project a winner is simply reckless and has more potential to determine a winner than any televised debate or set of credentials ever could. Group influence can be very persuasive and in an ideal society, media institutions would recognize the power of this influence and minimize their use of opinion polls when conveying information to the public.


Because every media institution, whether left, right or center, puts Obama ahead of McCain in their pre-election polls, it is my projection that the Boyarsky effect will trump the Bradley effect and marginalize any voters who concealed their votes to avoid racially motivated criticism. While the Bradley effect may come into play, I believe that there are more truly undecided voters than are actually accounted for and that these voters will be swayed to vote for Obama simply because media polls project that the election will go in his favor.


http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1851287,00.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1855843,00.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/03/obama-exudes-confidence-election-day-nears/